Sneak preview of version of tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby scenesetter:
Trainer Peter Miller said Comma to the Top was not going to the Kentucky Derby even if he won the Santa Anita Derby. The gelding lost by a head.
But assuming he stays in good form and health, Comma to the Top will be in the starting gate for the 137th Kentucky Derby on May 7 at Churchill Downs.
A week ago, trainer Eoin Harty admittedly was “on the fence” about trying to run Santa Anita Derby fifth-place finisher Anthony’s Cross in the Kentucky Derby. Now Harty is very enthused about running Anthony’s Cross if he gets into the overflow field.
“I know my horse will go the distance, he’s won at Churchill, he’s healthy and he’s happy,” said Harty, noting that Anthony’s Cross won a 1 1/8-mile stakes two races back and broke his maiden last fall at Churchill. “So if ever there was a year to take a shot, this is the year.”
At least 27 horses are considered probable or possible for the Derby if they can get in the capacity 20-horse field based on the most earnings in graded stakes.
“Instead of me telling the horse what he’s going to do, I’m going to start letting him tell me what he wants to do,” Miller said. “He’s saying, ‘Put me in, coach. I’m better than these guys. I’ve got more desire. I’ve got more heart.’ I think he’s every bit as good as anybody in the field. And he’s got proven toughness, grit and experience.”
Watch Me Go was beaten 17 lengths as the Illinois Derby favorite. But the Tampa Bay Derby winner is Kentucky-bound. So is Fountain of Youth winner Soldat after losing the Florida Derby by 10 ¼, and Gotham winner Stay Thirsty after losing the same race by 16 ¾. The Factor lost the Arkansas Derby by 8 ¾, with trainer Bob Baffert saying the speedy colt suffered a breathing obstruction.
Baffert, in a text response to a Courier-Journal question, called The Factor’s Derby status “probable.” He was among the Derby horses to arrive at Churchill Tuesday.
Baffert called it “day to day” that Jaycito, who was scratched from the Santa Anita Derby because of a tender foot, would make Keeneland’s $200,000 Coolmore Lexington on Saturday. The flight that would bring him from California is Thursday, with entries taken today.
Baffert has a Derby definite in Midnight Interlude, who won the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden victory.
“Bob is not putting The Factor in because he has no other action,” said George Bolton, The Factor’s majority owner. “Bob would only put him in the Derby if he was thriving, if he was doing great. I think Bob thinks on his best day that this horse is extremely competitive with this group.”
Why run in the Derby? The answer this year is a decided why not? Also, Mine That Bird winning at 50-1 in 2009 remains fresh in people’s minds.
“Everybody here believes they can win this race,” said Dean Reeves, majority owner of Risen Star winner Mucho Macho Man. “If you ask 10 different people, you’ll get 10 different horses they think will win.”
No favorite won in the six 1 1/8-mile final preps that are Grade I or II events.
“Changing of the guards is what it appears to be,” Steve Asmussen, trainer of Louisiana and Arkansas Derby runner-up Nehro, said, referring in the jump in distance from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. “… Usually it takes from a mile and an eighth to a mile and a quarter to change it that much.”
Indeed, the two horses whose speed figures had towered over the others – champion Uncle Mo and The Factor – did not look in the last eighth-mile like horses who would improve by running an additional furlong.
“A lot of things did change,” said Miller, adding that one of them was impressive San Felipe winner Premier Pegasus being knocked out by injury. “When I said, ‘I’m not going,’ there were about four really good horses out there. Everything kind of got mixed up that Saturday.”
Only three horses under Derby consideration have captured two graded stakes this year – probable Derby program favorite Dialed In (Florida Derby, Holy Bull), Archarcharch (Arkansas Derby, Southwest) and The Factor (Rebel, San Vicente).
“There’s wide open, and there’s really wide open,” said Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Soldat, who won the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth and went off the Florida Derby favorite.
McLaughlin says he’s “drawing a line” through Soldat’s Florida Derby. He notes that colt had a rough trip breaking on the rail and might have had difficulty with the kickback on the hot day over a deep and dry track, which he says will be different over the tighter Churchill surface.
“Let’s push rewind,” McLaughlin said. “IF Uncle Mo wins the Wood Memorial by eight, and IF The Factor wins the Arkansas Derby by six, maybe it would leave some doubt in your mind, ‘Do we really want to do this, to go on with those kinds of horses?’ But that didn’t happen. If you have the earnings to be in the race, anything can happen.”
Meanwhile, Todd Pletcher doesn’t think the losses by Uncle Mo and The Factor are particularly impacting field size.
“I think if The Factor had won by 10, if Uncle Mo had won by 10, there would still be 20 in the gate,” he said. “Kentucky Derby is a race of its own. No one handicaps it. No one says, ‘Oh, there’s a better spot a week later.’ There’s like – what? 23, 24? – in there every year now. You could have a 1-to-9 shot in there and nobody is going to duck them.”
